HOW TO THINK AHEAD #

How'>http://www.wikihow.com/Think-Ahead">How to Think Ahead from - The How to Manual That You Can No one can see the future, yet we all must make guesses about it in order to make decisions and be better prepared for what comes our way. The guesses that we make aren't based on seeing the future, but on our knowledge and past experiences, with a little bit of insight mixed in. Here's how you can get better at thinking ahead.

Steps

1. Determine what you want to plan or prepare for. The future is a big place with many eventualities, but chances are that you want to address a specific situation, problem, or opportunity. Define this end to the best of your abilities.
2. Use your intuition. Not all decisions are rational or carefully analyzed, and intuitive guesses can often be quite powerful. What feels right? What do you think will happen? When you use your intuition, you draw upon your experience and knowledge in a different way than when you make a rational analysis.
   • Listen to your first instinct. Intuition often works best before you've had time to study any details, so pay attention to it, even if you do not act immediately on it.
   • Intuition may clue you in to emotional factors and subtle cues that you might otherwise miss. If something feels wrong about a situation or you just don't like somebody, don't ignore it, even if you can't put your finger on the problem.
   • Use intuition as a "lead" rather than as a solution. Investigate what might be causing your hunch or gut feeling and dig deeper until you find it.
3. Consider what you already know. Prior knowledge comes from many places. Have you tried something similar before? Do you know how somebody is likely to react? Have you seen something done or could you read about others' experiences with a situation? Could you ask others? Can you try something out or gather data that might suggest what could happen?
4. Detect your own bias. People tend to bias their guesses and actions in certain predictable ways. For example, recent events may play a larger role in influencing decisions than they warrant; or, you may be more likely to believe something just because everyone around you believes it. If you think this sort of thing is happening, start looking closely at hard evidence (like facts and numbers) and question your own assumptions. Consult the list of cognitive biases[1] for common presumptions and biases and see if any apply to you.
5. Invent hypothetical situations related to your objective. Ask yourself "what if" for various possibilities and imagine possible outcomes, possible courses of events that could result. Especially, think about possible consequences of different courses of action.
6. Consider the worst-case scenario. What is the worst thing that could possibly happen? Evaluate the possible risks.
   • Is the worst case something you and others could tolerate? Could you clean up a mess, try again later, apologize, lose a bit of money, or cope with criticism or rejection?
   • Is the worst case something you could plan for, avoid, or mitigate?
   • Is the worst case too risky or too undesirable?
   • How likely is the worst case, and how likely is an undesirable outcome?
7. Consider the best-case scenario. What is the best thing that could possibly happen? Evaluate the possible rewards.
   • What can you do to bias the outcome towards the best case?
   • Where should you set your goals?
   • How likely is the best case, and how likely is a desirable outcome?
8. Think of possible actions to take. If you are trying to think ahead, it is probably because you want to decide how to respond to some situation or need, so think of possible responses.
9. Evaluate those actions. Based on your experience and knowledge about how such events usually turn out, choose or narrow down which action to take.
10. Prepare. Whatever you have to get ready, be it people, equipment, facilities, plans, or simply courage, get it ready.
    • Writing can be a powerful tool for preparation. It helps you remember your plans, and it helps you to see them completely. Use a calendar or notebook, checklist, chart, whatever helps you.
11. Try it. Act according to your forecasts and your plans. Then, let life take its course. See what happens. By taking note of the outcome, you will have more experience and knowledge to draw upon the next time you must make a decision such as this one.
12. Adjust. As you see what really does transpire, adjust your actions or responses as best you can. You may not have the opportunity to change course after you begin, but if you do have the benefit of new information or results, use them to decide how to modify your actions in the present and in the future.

Tips

• The best- and worst-case scenarios help you establish a range of likely possibilities and make plans and decisions accordingly.
• Practice. Even when you're not the one planning or forecasting, make predictions and watch what happens. This process will help you refine your predictions.
• Brainstorm together with others. Thinking ahead need not be done solo, and you will have the insights and ideas of everybody you consult. Also, ideas often feed other ideas.
• Skilled planners are in demand throughout the business world. If you get good at thinking ahead, consider making a career of it.
• Inaction is a possible response in many situations, but evaluate its merits and risks, too. It can have benefits (more information may come later or somebody's involvement could harm his or her reputation), but it can also have risks (missed deadlines or opportunities). An in-between approach might be to wait for a little while, perhaps just long enough to learn more.
• Be honest with yourself. No amount of wishful thinking is going to stop the next natural disaster, but the realistic admission that one might happen could lead you to prepare appropriately.
• Statistics and probability are mathematical ways of analyzing track records. Use them if you need numerical information about how likely an outcome is.

Warnings

• Don't get so caught up in thinking ahead that you fail to act. Often, the best thing to do is to try something based on your best guess and see whether it works.
• Treat your guesses and plans as just that. No one can foresee every eventuality.

Related wikiHows

• How to Be Proactive
• How to Be Resourceful
• How to Be Patient
• How to Develop a Risk Management Plan
• How to Be Persistent
• How to Guess

Sources and Citations

1. ↑ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

Article provided by wikiHow, a collaborative writing project to build the world's largest, highest quality how-to manual. Please edit this article and find author credits at the original wikiHow article on http://www.wikihow.com/Think-Ahead">How to Think Ahead. All content on wikiHow can be shared under a http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/">Creative Commons license.

The best tax saving funds

In Why you must invest in ELSS funds, we spoke about the returns delivered by tax saving mutual funds and why they make for a smart investment option.
Today, we look at the five best funds to park your money in.
Franklin India Taxshield :
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This one may look dull when compared to some of its flashy peers. Nevertheless, it remains one of the finest options in this category.
An outstanding long-term performance record coupled with extremely low volatility makes this fund apt for any tax-planning portfolio.
The fund's average performance in recent times should not worry investors. Of course, it has lagged behind some of its aggressive peers, who have earned hot returns through mid-cap and small-cap stocks. But, the consistency of this fund is hard to beat.
This fund can be your best friend in uncertain times. In 2000, when all tax saving funds lost 22.58% on an average, this one gained 2.11%.In 2001, when the funds lost an average of 20.49%, this fund lost just 13.33%.
Through its life, it has almost always outperformed the average returns of its peers in tough times.
From 2002 onwards, it has been delivering good returns.
The fund manager believes in buying and holding on to the stock. The average life of a stock (time the fund manager holds onto it before selling it) has been a healthy 18 months. Stocks like Infosys, Grasim Industries and Hindalco have now become permanent members of the portfolio.
Currently, the fund manager has a portfolio of around 45 to 55 stocks. It's large-cap focus and ability to protect the downside (when the stock market falls) makes this fund a worthy choice.
The richest mutual funds
HDFC Long Term Advantage Fund
With a portfolio laden with mid-cap and small-cap stocks, this fund has delivered an outstanding performance since its launch in December 2000.
Starting as a large-cap oriented fund, it soon realised the potential of mid-caps and small-caps. By August 2002, it began investing heavily in them. The fund ended that year as the hottest fund in the category.
Over the next two years, the exposure to mid- and small-caps increased to over 80% of the total portfolio (all the investments).
The fund has marginally changed its focus right now. With equity markets at their all-time high and more volatility, it has now invested more in large-cap and quality mid-cap stocks and cut down substantially on small-caps.
This fund is a worthy choice for all long-term portfolios.
Saving for multiple goals?
HDFC Taxsaver
This fund offers a rare combination of low risk and high returns. One of the least volatile funds in the category, HDFC Taxsaver has delivered an awesome 43.07% annual return since launch in March 1996.
The recent bull run has strengthened the fund's superlative track record.
In 2003, it delivered a return of 121.06% and in 2004, it delivered a return of 49.38%. Till October 26, 2005, the fund had raced ahead to give a return of 50.72% while the average return of its peers was 29.06%.
What makes this fund special is not how it exploits the booming stock market but the way it manages downside risk (when the market falls).
The year 2002 was the only rough patch in an otherwise sparkling track record of the fund. High investments in public sector undertakings and FMCG stocks and a low allocation to mid-caps dented its performance. Since then the fund has never looked back.
In recent times, the fund began investing in relatively risky but rewarding mid- and small-cap stocks. Now, with the stock market reaching such levels and turning volatile, the fund has once again started investing in large-cap stocks.
An admirable performance record, low volatility and the ability to protect returns in a bearish market make the fund special.
Is it time to sell my fund?
Magnum Taxgain
The oldest ELSS fund has earned enormous wealth for its investors in the last two years.
Till mid-2003, the fund had a depressing past. Since launch in March 1993, it gained a paltry 5.09% a year till June 2003. Since then, its performance chart has seen an unprecedented rise and the fund has earned an annualised return of 104% between mid-2003 and October 2005 and is miles ahead of its average peer's 56.72% return during the same period.
A greater emphasis on some well picked mid- and small-cap stocks is behind the fund's sensational turnaround.
Some of its engineering and chemical picks have performed exceptionally well during the period. Stocks like Thermax, Praj Industries, Havell's India, Crompton Greaves and United Phosphorous proved to be lucrative investments.
As on October 31, 2005, the fund had gained 69.72% since the start of the year, more than the average returns of its peers of 27.22%.
The fund has had its share of pain and 2000 and 2001 were the most painful period in its life. It is an aggressive fund where the fund manager does not hesitate to take huge stock-specific or sector-specific bets. Therefore, you get high returns but high volatility too.
Will this bull run continue?
Prudential ICICI Tax Plan
If sharp ups and downs in the Net Asset Value make you fret, ignore this fund. This fund is highly volatile and susceptible to market swings. However, those who keep the faith here are rewarded suitably.
The fund had a disastrous start in August 1999. It suffered huge losses when the tech boom crashed in 2000 but staged a strong comeback.
In 2001, when on an average its peers lost 20%, this fund lost just 6%. In 2002, it did not fare as well but delivered a 150% return in 2003 and 36.46% return in 2004.
The fund manager's ability to pick opportunities among lesser-known stocks early enough is praiseworthy. At times, the fund has taken huge concentrated bets.
Even exposure to small-caps has touched a high of 66%. But, the fund tries to mitigate the risk of investing in small-caps by investing across various stocks and sectors.

Reframing (NLP) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Reframing (NLP) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia